The rise of the global electric vehicle market stems from the zero-carbon emission target led by Europe and the United States. Although the proportion of carbon emissions in the transportation sector is not high, vehicles, as consumer goods, are one of the categories most easily replaced by renewable energy. BCG has accurately predicted in 2020 (although the specific sales
(Volume forecasts are rising every year), and the process of switching from oil to electric vehicles will see a turning point starting in 2023. This situation is in line with the current changing trend of the EV market.
• Because the initial investment in EV R&D is huge, it requires industry support at the government level. On the other hand, the consumer market also needs policy incentives to cultivate in the early stages. Once the industrial chain takes shape and the market begins to grow, the policies of various countries begin to gradually decline, and the subsequent role of the government gradually weakens.
EV development will be left to the market to lead.
• At present, the global EV industry technology has become mature, the consumer market is growing rapidly, and the overall EV penetration rate has reached 17%. From 2024, global EV development will move from the policy-driven early stage to the market-driven growth stage.
Under the premise of being driven by the market, regardless of factors affecting costs such as policy subsidies, consumers must be persuaded to buy
To replace gasoline vehicles, EVS need to provide an experience that is at least as good as that of gasoline vehicles in all aspects.
• There are three key factors that affect the popularity of EVs: comprehensive ownership cost, cruising range and charging experience.
• The industry generally believes that compared with gasoline vehicles, the price of a popular electric vehicle is about US$36,000 and the mileage is 291 miles.
The maximum charging time is half an hour.
Recent consumer surveys have shown that among the factors that influence EV consumer purchases, the importance of mileage and price has declined, which reflects that users’ mileage and price needs have been gradually met. As EV penetration increases and range anxiety subsides, charging bottlenecks begin
reveal.
• The charging experience in overseas markets is generally unsatisfactory. The current accessibility, reliability and convenience of public charging are still far from meeting the standards required by users. Moreover, with the growth of EVs every year, satisfaction continues to decline, and the charging infrastructure cannot keep up with the development of EVs. The contradictions are becoming more and more prominent.
Post time: Mar-02-2024
